The Future Of TV Measurement Is Looking Rather Emotional

If you spent any time around the TV ad world this spring, you know the Upfronts are still very much alive and well. That's not surprising when you realize they date back to 1962, when ABC created the first Upfront to give advertisers a chance to buy into the new fall TV season. Sixty-plus years later, we're still at it. But the world around them has changed dramatically.

We’re no longer living in a purely linear, GRP-driven universe. Today’s Upfronts are increasingly about impressions, not gross ratings points (GRPs), and about reaching audiences across platforms, not just in prime time. And while moving from GRPs to impressions seems straightforward, it’s surfaced a much bigger and more complicated question: **Are all impressions equally valuable?**

It turns out, they’re not.

During our recent TVREV webinar, I sat down with longtime media research expert Howard Shimmel and Mediaprobe CEO Pedro Almeida to dig into this shift. What we found was that the move to impressions is only part of the story. The bigger story is about impact — how different impressions affect viewers emotionally, and why that emotional response matters when it comes to making media investments more effective.

Why the Upfronts Are Still With Us

Howard kicked us off by walking through why the Upfronts continue to thrive in a world of streaming, NewFronts, and churn.

For media companies, the Upfronts offer financial predictability. Many networks lock in 80% or more of their national ad sales during the Upfronts, giving them visibility into their ad revenue for the next six to eight quarters. For advertisers, it’s the only way to secure premium inventory — if you want to run spots during NFL games, for example, you need to commit during the Upfronts. That scarcity value hasn’t gone away just because we’ve added streaming into the mix.

What has changed is how we think about audiences. GRPs were designed for an era when viewers mostly watched live TV on their couch. Today’s audiences are fragmented, mobile, and increasingly watching on demand. That’s why the industry is shifting to impressions: a unit that works whether someone’s watching live, streaming on demand, or even catching clips online.

But here’s the rub: once you start measuring by impressions, you quickly realize that not all impressions deliver the same value.

Not All Impressions Are Created Equal

Not every view is created equal. Two people could both be "exposed" to an ad, but one might have been multitasking while the other was fully engaged. One might have felt nothing; the other might have felt excited, inspired, or emotionally connected. Which impression is more likely to drive behavior? The one that triggered an emotional response.

Historically, we didn’t have great tools to measure that at scale. Ratings and impressions told us that people saw something, but not how they felt about it. That’s where the next evolution is happening.

Measuring What Really Matters

Pedro Almeida, CEO and co-founder of Mediaprobe provided a deeper dive into this topic. Pedro, who holds a PhD and spent part of his career as a university professor, gave a powerful presentation on how emotional response can — and should — be measured and why measuring it can help us to understand impression quality.

Mediaprobe’s technology measures real-time emotional responses from a panel of viewers while they are watching content and ads. Instead of relying on surveys or asking people how they felt afterward, they use sensors to track biological signals — things like heart rate variability (how much your heartbeat speeds up or slows down) and skin conductance (how much your skin naturally sweats when you react emotionally, even if you don’t feel it). 

Viewers wear a simple device that picks up these signals while they watch, without interrupting them or changing their behavior. Because it’s all measured scientifically and passively, not self-reported, it gives a much more honest, real-time view into how the content is actually making people feel.

Pedro explained that emotional response is one of the most powerful predictors of ad effectiveness. Ads and programs that spark strong emotional reactions — whether excitement, joy, empathy, or even surprise — are much more likely to be remembered and acted upon. Conversely, content that generates little or no emotional response tends to be quickly forgotten.

By understanding which impressions actually generate emotional impact, marketers can make smarter media buys. Instead of just buying “audience reach,” they can buy audience resonance, or, in more blunt terms, quality over quantity. 

Impact Over Impressions

As we move from GRPs to impressions, the next logical step is to move from counting exposures to valuing exposures.

It’s not enough to know how many people saw an ad. We need to know which exposures are likely to drive memory, intent, and action. Emotional response data helps fill that gap, offering a layer of insight that traditional exposure-based metrics miss.

Mediaprobe’s approach can also help networks and platforms better package and price their inventory. Premium isn’t just about "where" an ad runs anymore; it’s about "how" it performs in the mind and heart of the viewer.

Final Thoughts

The Upfronts are evolving, but they’re not going anywhere. What’s changing is how we define value. As impressions become the standard, emotional response is becoming the differentiator.

Understanding which impressions make an impact — and why — is the next frontier for smart media planning and more effective buying, during the Upfronts and the rest of the year.

To dig deeper into this critical shift, watch the entire webinar on demand. Trust me — it’s well worth your time.

Not to mention, free.